Armed conflict biggest risk for world in 2025: WEF survey

Report notes that risk of conflict over Taiwan and China could not be ruled out

- Arvind Jayaram

The eruption of more armed conflicts worldwide as Russia's invasion of Ukraine grinds on and wars rage in the Middle East and Sudan poses the greatest risk to global economic growth and prosperity in 2025, according to a World Economic Forum (WEF) report released on Jan 15.

Nearly a quarter (23 per cent) of respondents to the WEF's Global Risks Perception Survey for 2024-25 said that "state-based armed conflict" would pose a material crisis on a global scale in 2025. State-based armed conflict refers to the bilateral or multilateral use of force between states or between a state and non-state actors.

The survey was conducted as part of the WEF's Global Risks Report 2025, which was unveiled in the run-up to the WEF Summit kicking off in Davos on Jan 20.

In particular, the report noted that the risk of conflict over Taiwan and China could not be ruled out, which may have been a factor in respondents' evaluation of the challenges in 2025. With both the US and China set to ramp up military activities close to Taiwan and the Chinese mainland in the coming years as a show of strength and a deterrent, it warned that there was a major risk of miscalculation by either side that could end in the accidental loss of life or destruction of hardware. This could lead to tit-for-tat military escalation.