A relationship redefined

The American century coined by Henry Luce in 1941 is ebbing. The unipolar world that emerged with the collapse of the Soviet Union has ended. Xi’s reference to the Thucydides trap is a call to the US to re-adjust itself to a world where bipolarity will be the order. Putin’s rush to Beijing is to seek a guarantee that the new polarity does not shake up the close relationship between Russia and China

- SUSHILA RAMASWAMY & SUBRATA MUKHERJEE

Xi Jinping at his meeting with Donald Trump on 14-15 May 2026 in Beijing referred to the Thucydides Trap, a metaphor that refers to the inherent tensions and perils when an established power is challenged by a rising power.

Xi Jinping at his meeting with Donald Trump on 14-15 May 2026 in Beijing referred to the Thucydides Trap, a metaphor that refers to the inherent tensions and perils when an established power is challenged by a rising power. This is not the first time that Xi referred to it; he used it in 2014. Thucydides in the History of the Peloponnesian War (411 BC) observed that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear it instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable”. The war began in 431 BC between Sparta, the established power, and Athens, the rising power, for hegemony in ancient Greece. It ended in 404 BC with the defeat of Athens.

In recent times Graham Allison has popularised this metaphor with wider historical examples and applies it in analysing the US-China relationship. Allison points out: “Others identified an array of contributing causes of the Peloponnesian War. But Thucydides went to the heart of the matter, focusing on the inexorable, structural stress caused by a rapid shift in the balance of power between two rivals”. In addition, according to Allison, “two key drivers in this dynamic,” were according to Thucydides, “the rising power's growing entitlement, sense of its importance, and demand for greater say and sway, on the one hand and the fear, insecurity, and determination to defend the status quo this engenders in the established power, on the other”. The Thucydides trap continues to be a reference point comparable to Kant’s doctrine of democratic peace in international affairs.