Treaty Cancellation Is a Game-Changer

It was once said that future wars would not be fought over land or ideology, but over something far more elemental — water. As the 21st century unfolds, this prophecy seems to be inching closer to reality.

- SANTHOSH MATHEW

It was once said that future wars would not be fought over land or ideology, but over something far more elemental — water. As the 21st century unfolds, this prophecy seems to be inching closer to reality. Across the parched deserts of West Asia, the dusty plains of Africa, the sprawling river basins of Asia, and even parts of Europe, water is emerging as the ultimate prize — and the ultimate weapon.

Among the most enduring water-related agreements in history was the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, a pact painstakingly brokered by the World Bank between two bitter rivals: India and Pakistan. Even while they fought full-scale wars in 1965, 1971, and 1999, and engaged in countless skirmishes across the Line of Control, both countries honoured the treaty for over six decades. But the patience of history can wear thin. And when civilians were massacred by Pakistani-backed terrorists in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, India decided enough was enough.

In an extraordinary move that can only be described as a diplomatic surgical strike, India announced its withdrawal from the Indus Waters Treaty. It was a masterstroke of foreign policy — bold, calculated, and devastatingly effective without firing a single bullet. The impact was immediate and electric. Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan's agricultural heartlands, depend almost entirely on the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. These rivers irrigate their fields, power their turbines, and fill their drinking reservoirs.

With India cutting off or severely restricting these flows, Pakistan's fragile economy — already teetering on the brink due to inflation, debt, and political instability — faces an existential threat. Pakistan's reaction was predictably theatrical. It declared India's move an "act of war" and even muttered nuclear threats under its breath. But empty threats cannot build canals, irrigate crops, or generate electricity.