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Oxford Economics warns US tariff hikes signal a downturn in global economic outlook

The Star

|

April 30, 2025

THE announcement of substantial tariff hikes by the US administration marked a turning point in global economic outlook, as reflected in the latest Global Risk Survey conducted by Oxford Economics.

- SIPHELELE DLUDLA

Launched on April 3, just hours after the US declared 'Liberation Day,' the survey revealed a significant deterioration in business sentiment, continuing a trend of pessimism that lasted throughout the three-week sample period.

The latest quarterly survey, completed by 125 clients across sectors, reveals a complex landscape driven by fears of imminent trade wars, economic sluggishness, and shifting global dynamics.

The Global Business Sentiment Index, derived from these surveys, indicated a worrying forecast: global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to decelerate to just 1.2% by late 2025.

This is half the growth rate businesses anticipated in January and 0.6 percentage points below the most recent baseline.

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