NATO's Painful Catch-Up Plan

As you read this, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit is underway with heads of state from member countries deliberating on the alliance's path forward.

- ANDREW J. MASIGAN

Although the formal communique of this year's NATO Summit will only be released in the next few days, I can already foretell that among the centerpiece resolutions is a pledge to increase military spending to five percent of GDP. The need to increase military spending was already the center of conversation during the NATO foreign minister's meeting in Turkey last May.

NATO's increase in military spending is significant as it reflects a clear recognition of the immediate threats posed by Russia's expansionist ambitions. It also responds to China's persistent use of grey zone tactics—provocative measures designed to secure strategic advantages without triggering open conflict—as part of its effort to reshape the global order to its favor. Additionally, the instability in the Gulf, as exemplified by the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, adds to the urgency. The push for greater defense spending underscores NATO's shared understanding of the growing importance of military readiness, deterrence, and rapid response capabilities.

NATO's plan to increase military spending to five percent of GDP is unprecedented because it far exceeds the alliance's long-standing defense spending benchmark of two percent. This level of spending has not been seen since the Cold War. It represents a historic shift in NATO's strategic posture, reflecting the scale of current global threats.