Energy issues from the US elections, The Freeman Cebu forum

Central Visayas is the third-largest or richest region in the Philippines after Metro Manila.

- Bienvenido S. Oplas Jr.

In 2023, its regional domestic product was P1.58 trillion, following CALABARZON's P3.44 trillion and Central Luzon's P2.65 trillion. Metro Manila had P7.57 trillion out of a total Philippines GDP of P24.32 trillion.

Cebu City is the heart and commercial and financial center of Central Visayas. I'm here to attend The Freeman's "Powering Cebu" energy forum held at Waterfront Hotel & Casino in Cebu City. The Freeman is a leading regional newspaper and is part of the STAR group.

This piece will cover four energy topics, so let's go straight to the numbers.

US elections and energy implications

In December 2016, the last month of the Obama administration's second term, the US was producing 8.8 million barrels per day (mbpd). When Trump took office, this quickly jumped to 9.8 mbpd in 2017, 11.7 mbpd in 2018, 12.9 mbpd in 2019, peaked at 13.1 mbpd in February 2020, then dropped to 11.0 mbpd in December 2020 due to worldwide lockdowns in March of that year.

Under Biden, production increased marginally to 12.0 mbpd in 2022 and recovered to 13.3 mbpd in 2023. As of October 2024, it reached 13.5 mbpd.

Trump's "drill baby drill" policy significantly expanded US domestic oil and gas production, while the Biden administration started with a "save the planet" policy, initially curtailing US oil and gas production until they changed course in 2023.

As of this writing, Trump is leading Harris in the Nov. 5 elections. If Trump wins a second term, then the "drill baby drill" policy will resume, and US oil production could reach 16 mbpd by 2029, stabilizing world oil prices at lower levels. A Harris presidency, however, would mean a marginal increase, if not a flatlining, of US oil and gas production, and oil prices will likely resume their increase.