5 Fearless Auto Industry Forecasts for 2025

Barely a week has gone by, and it looks like 2025 is shaping up to be a solid year for the Philippine automotive industry.

- By ULYSSES ANG

Building on the foundations of 2024, and the continued growth of the economy (it's an election year after all), car manufacturers and distributors are seeing 2025 to be yet another exciting year in terms of new model introductions.

Of course, what will eventually arrive at local showrooms will no doubt be influenced by larger industry trends. And though there's no way to be completely certain of what's going to happen, peering into the magic crystal ball, here are my fearless auto industry forecasts that will shape the coming year.

NEW CAR SALES WILL RISE, IF ONLY JUST

January is a month often filled with optimism, but I'm calling it as early as now: new car sales will stay flat or only slightly rise this 2025.

In 2024, the joint industry report from the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines and Truck Manufacturers Association (CAMPI-TMA) showed that while the new car sales started strong, as soon as banks tightened consumer lending, the industry started to lose momentum. With up to 80 percent of new car buyers relying on some kind of financing, CAMPI-TMA members will barely hit the 468,300-unit target they were so confident of setting in early 2024. This is based on projections using the 11-month January to November industry figures.

With a vast majority of banks surveyed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) unlikely to make changes to their loan standards this 2025, this will mean fewer people will have their auto loans approved which will affect new car sales. It's a scenario that's played out in neighboring countries such as Thailand where tight credit policies have dropped sales by as much as 25 percent. Offsetting the gloomy scenario, however, the Philippines is showing a robust GDP rate. That and the fact that it's an election year might see new car sales stay flat or rise slightly this year.

FROM CAR OWNERSHIP TO USERSHIP