Why weather forecasting is still crucial to prevent disasters

The Texas floods have shown the enduring importance of meteorology, at a time when climate change, Trump and AI are reshaping the science.

- writes Xavier Greenwood

Nine days after flash floods devastated Texas, some local officials have cast blame on weather reports for failing to predict the size of the storm.

So what?

The forecast was as accurate as it could be. Even with the best models, it is nearly impossible to predict the exact locations and intensity of thunderstorms days in advance. And here's the rub: climate change will make things even trickier. In the case of Texas, more than 120 people are confirmed dead and rescuers continue to search for scores of people who are still missing.

Heavens above

Interest in the skies is not a new phenomenon. Samuel Johnson wrote in 1758 that when two Englishmen meet, "their first talk is of the weather". A century later, Vice-Admiral Robert FitzRoy founded the UK Met Office and gave the first public weather forecast. Published in the Times and syndicated widely, FitzRoy's predictions made him a celebrity. The satirical magazine Punch declared him "Clerk of the Weather" and a racehorse was named after him.

Do listen

The vice-admiral's innovations came with serious responsibility. He issued the first storm warning in 1861, using cones and drums to alert ships in harbour and along the coast. Seafarers on the Tyne didn't listen to the warning and many people died. Even now communication is seen as a key element in effective forecasting. That's why storms are given names.

Leaps and bounds

FitzRoy took his own life after facing constant criticism for the accuracy of his predictions, but his legacy is legion. His early prognostications laid the foundation for the modern-day shipping forecast, as different mediums began to emerge. The BBC's first daily radio broadcast in 1922 started with a news bulletin, followed by the weather.

No greater pressure