Putin has failed, says Finland's leader, but shift in US strategy is a threat to peace

Ever the pragmatist, Alexander Stubb warns that Russia will continue to test Europe, especially in light of the mixed messages now coming out of the White House. Steve Bloomfield meets him in Helsinki

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A self-propelled howitzer from Finland's substantial armoury.

Nobody needs to explain the threat of an “imperialist Russia” to a man who lives in a palace built for a Russian tsar.

Since becoming president of Finland 21 months ago, Alexander Stubb has spent most of his time thinking, talking and writing about Vladimir Putin, his war in Ukraine and what it means for the rest of Europe.

But over the course of an hour in an ornate drawing room overlooking Helsinki harbour, Stubb sketches out a far more nuanced view, criticising the “alarmism” that some of his fellow European leaders have engaged in, while also talking up the chances of a peace deal that Ukraine may find acceptable.

It also becomes clear that a man who describes himself as “the most pro-American president in Europe” and plays golf with Donald Trump has been shaken by the White House’s shifting view of the rest of the world. Set out in the recent National Security Strategy (NSS), it ranged from a refusal to criticise Russia to incendiary words on European democracy.

He is fresh off the plane from Berlin, where European leaders and their security officials spent two days in negotiations with the US delegation led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. They were trying to change the original US-Russia authored 28-point peace plan (“a bad document,” says Stubb) into something that Ukraine might be able to accept.

Stubb feels relatively happy. “There was a common understanding and unity between the US, Ukraine and Europe” that hadn’t previously existed, he says, citing a positive agreement on security guarantees.