Heatwaves and Rains Are Cooking Up India's Food Inflation

Extreme weather is reshaping India's food inflation, with tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (TOP) emerging as the most vulnerable crops.

- SV KRISHNA CHAITANYA @ Chennai

A new analysis by Climate Trends, a Delhi-based organisation, has connected the dots between climate change, crop losses and rising food prices. The study shows how extreme heatwaves and erratic rainfall have severely impacted TOP production over the past five years, pushing up prices of these staples and driving food inflation to alarming levels.

Drawing on Reserve Bank of India studies, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) analysis and official datasets, the research highlights how weather shocks are becoming a recurring driver of inflation.

A RBI study shows that rainfall changes raise vegetable inflation by about 1.24 percentage points, while temperature changes increase it by around 1.30 points. These short-duration, perishable crops are highly sensitive to sudden climate shocks, and their concentrated production in a few states makes them especially prone to volatility.