THAILAND'S FRAGILE STABILITY

INCE 2023, Thai politics has changed direction several times. In under three years, three different prime minis- ters from separate political families and parties have led the country. This instability has deepened the divide between those who support popular representation and those who favour the conservative monarchical and military order that has shaped Thailand for almost a cen- tury. The latest election in February 2026 has heralded the new government under Anutin Charnvirakul and the Bhumjaithai Party.

- SHANKARI SUNDARARAMAN Professor at School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University

This article will address four key questions critical to any understanding of the political situation in the country. First, why did the Move Forward Party (MFP) not lead the government? Second, what decisions led to the shift from Move Forward’s momentum to the Shinawatras’ return through the Pheu Thai Party? Third, what reasons did the Constitutional Court give for removing two elected prime ministers during the transitions between Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra? Fourth, how is the current election different and if Anutin’s leadership could mean stability in Thailand?

First, although MFP became the largest party in the 2023 general elections, it could not even achieve a majority through coalition. This shows that winning the most seats does not always mean gaining power. The MFP’s reform plans faced strong opposition. Senior party leader Pita Limjaroenrat questioned the influence of big business and the military in Thai politics. He argued that the close ties between the two limited participation and encouraged crony capitalism, which affected political leadership.