How an Equation in Moscow Affects Calculus in Delhi

Trump seemingly wants to use peace parleys with Russia to avoid punitive sanctions on its oil. With his trade demands resembling brigandage, India should call off the talks

- M K BHADRAKUMAR

U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy for Russia, Steve Witkoff, predicted in an interview last weekend that it would be a success if a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict is achieved by the end of the presidential term in January 2029. The remark signals Washington's belated awareness that it is futile to press Russia to compromise on its vital national interests.

Witkoff was talking to the media after a 2-month silence during which General Keith Kellogg, Trump's hawkish special envoy for Russian-Ukrainian settlement, dominated the diplomatic arena advocating a tough stance towards Moscow. The Kellogg line peaked with Trump's July 14 announcement of a 50-day deadline to Russia to end the war. A fortnight later, Trump said that Russia had "10 days from today" to end its war.

The week since then witnessed a breathtaking cascade of U.S.-Russia tensions characterized by some calibrated brinkmanship—transfer of U.S. nuclear weapons to the UK for the first time in 17 years; belligerent posturing vis-à-vis the Russian nuclear base of Kaliningrad; and deployment of U.S. nuclear submarines near Russia.

Last Friday, the Russian response came with the stunning announcement by President Vladimir Putin on the deployment of Oreshnik, the intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile with multiple warheads and a speed exceeding Mach 10 (12,300 km/h) against which the West, including the U.S., has no defense. The Russian foreign ministry followed through last night with a historic announcement on lifting of Moscow's moratorium on the deployment of intermediate-and shorter-range missiles as a new reality in strategic balance in the face of "a growing number of facts indicating the emergence of U.S.-made weapons in a variety of regions around the globe including the regions that are of particular national security importance for Russia".