Worrying drop in Durban business confidence index

Businesses express pessimism about future growth amid service delivery issues

- THAMI MAGUBANE

THE findings of the latest Durban Business Confidence Index (BCI) are raising concerns about future economic growth in the City, with the report indicating that businesses are increasingly pessimistic.

The Business Confidence Index assesses business confidence in the City, and the latest findings highlight significant concerns regarding the overall business climate. The report is compiled by the Macroeconomics Research Unit at the University of KwaZulu-Natal.

The report presents the Durban BCI for the second quarter of 2025 (2025Q2). The index ranges from 0 to 100, where a score below 50 implies a lack of confidence in the Durban economy, a score of 50 indicates that the business situation is normal or neutral, and a score above 50 denotes confidence in the economy.

“The Durban BCI continued to decline for a third consecutive quarter in 2025Q2, dropping to 52.40 points from 56.32 points in the previous quarter. This suggests that businesses are becoming less optimistic about both current and future economic conditions in Durban,’ the report stated.

However, the report noted that while the Durban BCI declined, it remains above the neutral zone and significantly outperforms the national BCI. The national index fell from 45 points in the first quarter of 2025 to 40 points in the current quarter. Therefore, it appears that the ongoing decline in the Durban BCI is likely driven by the national economic situation rather than factors specific to Durban, the report said.

Looking at the performance of individual industries, the report noted that following a strong improvement in 2025Q1, driven by favourable weather conditions, among other factors, business confidence in the agricultural sector decreased by 51% in the second quarter.