Time to show real action, not diplomatic disapproval

Failure to respond to Moscow will encourage Putin to test the West's purpose in yet more countries

- By Keir Giles

Poland is in crisis mode after a mass Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace. How Europe and Nato respond is vital not just for Poland itself, but also for any other country that needs to see Russia deterred instead of emboldened.

This is not the first time Russian drones have entered Polish airspace, but the Polish response makes clear that this is an entirely different situation from previous incidents that could have been explained away as unintentional. Poland’s unequivocal designation of the incident as an act of aggression leaves no room for misinterpretation.

That also means that the incident is a test for Nato. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is famously vague both about what constitutes an “armed attack” and what Nato member states must do in response to it. But the one entirely clear thing is that an attack on Poland has to be treated as though it were an attack on every Nato member state. That means that if called upon, countries like the UK, France, and even the United States are treaty-bound to respond to this incident as though they were the victim as well as Poland.

For the time being, Poland has not raised the issue of Nato responding under Article 5. Instead, it has invoked Article 4, which provides for consultations between Nato member states in response to a crisis. That’s a softer option for Poland, for Nato, and for Nato allies that may still be hesitant about confronting Russia.

Based on the consistent pattern to date, Russia can be fairly confident that the United States under Donald Trump will not respond in any meaningful way. But Russia’s plans for Europe depend on Trump remaining as compliant and passive for the continent as a whole as he has been over Ukraine. Russia needs reassurance that the United States will not respond - and incidents of this kind, together with the recent attack on a US-owned factory in western Ukraine are a means of providing it.