Reform winning big in May could backfire on its leader

Nigel Farage and Reform UK have found themselves sitting proudly at the top of various opinion polls since the general election on 4 July last year.

- DAVID MADDOX

The latest Techne UK tracker poll for The Independent showed the party to be in joint first place with Labour, on 24 per cent each, two points ahead of Kemi Badenoch’s Tories. But on 1 May, Farage and co will face their first big electoral test – which will reveal if the polls are genuine, or whether, when it comes to the ballot box, voters are less inclined to put their cross by Reform.

It is fair to say that May Day is also a serious first test for Keir Starmer as prime minister, and for Badenoch as Tory leader, but it is Farage – more than any other political leader – whose credibility is riding on this set of elections.

While multiple wins across the country will confirm the status of Reform as a serious political threat to its rivals, victory will also bring serious challenges. There will be questions about Farage’s style of leadership, and whether his party can actually be one of government.

What victory could look like for Reform

As things stand, they are the favourites to win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election – and if they fail to do so, it will raise serious doubts as to whether Reform is capable of making a significant breakthrough in a general election.

Added to that, the party’s private polling suggests it will win at least three of the mayoralties, with Tory defector Andrea Jenkyns leading the way in Greater Lincolnshire, former boxer Luke Campbell in Hull and East Yorkshire, and Alexander Jones in Doncaster. Furthermore, “Brexit bad boy” millionaire Arron Banks cannot be ruled out of winning the West of England mayoral race.

The party also seems to be on course to be the biggest in Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire. On a really good day, they could win a majority on one or two of those county councils.