Netanyahu's hubris may deepen Israel's problems

There are two distinct ways of looking at the broad Israeli attack on Iran, almost destined to escalate further in the coming days.

- ALON PINKAS

The first is to conclude that “Israel had to do what Israel had to do” to prevent Iran from further advancing on the development of a military nuclear capability. It was a pre-emptive strike, a euphoric prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared.

According to this explanation, Iran’s significant geopolitical weakening in 2024-2025 through the military degrading of Hezbollah, its prized regional proxy, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and successful Israeli attacks on Tehran’s air defence systems in October 2024, created an opportunity to strike and set back the nuclear programme.

Of course, that ignores the fact that Iran made progress, enhanced and modernised its uranium enrichment capabilities and stockpiled over 300kg of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium (90 per cent is required for military grade, but the leap from 60-90 per cent is not long), as a direct result of Donald Trump’s 2018 decision, encouraged intensively by Netanyahu, to unilaterally withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

In 2015, Netanyahu said there was a better deal – but never came up with one. Then, in 2018, he explained to Trump that maximum sanctions pressure on Iran would impel them to agree to such a “better deal”. The exact opposite happened.

The second analysis has to do with a combination of Netanyahu’s unhinged, messianic approach to Iran and his selfimage after 7 October 2023.

Iran threatens not only Jewish civilisation, but the West – which makes Netanyahu not just the protector of Israel, his image initially bolstered after the 7 October Hamas attacks (and vastly diminished due to the death toll in Gaza since), but also the saviour of the West. This, he believes, is how he should go down in history.