How Much Does Scotland Matter To Labour's Chances?

Obviously, there’s been much coverage of the prospective big loser in the general election being the Conservative Party, which is still stuck around 20 percentage points behind Labour in the polls.

- SEAN O'GRADY

However, there are two other parties that are likely to get battered on 4 July – the Democratic Unionists in Northern Ireland, and the Scottish National Party.

It is the SNP’s prospects that will be of the greater significance in the new House of Commons. The latest polling suggests that Labour could go from the single Scottish constituency it won in the 2019 election to a majority of the seats that Scotland now sends to Westminster. This would provide Keir Starmer with even more of a national mandate and, if sentiment swings away from him in England and Wales in the coming weeks, provide him with a useful bridge to an overall majority, which he might otherwise not have.

How much has changed?

It’s been dramatic. Scottish Labour has decisively overtaken the Nationalists, and the latest Survation poll puts the party on 36 per cent to the SNP’s 32 per cent. This time last year, the same company had the SNP leading Labour by 38 per cent to 31 per cent. Overall, it represents an impressive swing of around 15 per cent from the SNP to Labour since the 2019 general election.