Costly failure that's driven the justice system to its knees

For every 100,000 people in England and Wales, an average of 134 people are locked up. This is one of the highest rates in Western Europe. With more than 87,000 inmates as of February 2025, our prisons are 98 per cent full and the criminal justice system is on the brink of collapse.

- ANDI HOXHAJ

If the current rate of arrests and convictions continues, some predict that prison estates will run out of space within weeks. Several parliamentary enquiries have been launched to find out what caused the overcrowding crisis and how it might be fixed.

Initial findings suggest that a “penal populism” approach from both Labour and Conservative governments in recent years has meant that people are receiving longer sentences for crimes. Between 2012 and 2023, the average sentence increased from 14.5 to 21.4 months.

A driving force behind this change is polls since the late 1980s showing that three-quarters of the British public judge criminal sentencing to be too lenient. In response, successive governments have focused policy on imprisonment and longer sentences, to show that they are tough on crime.

The overcrowding situation the current government is facing presents Keir Starmer and his home secretary, Yvette Cooper, with a once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform UK crime and punishment. In particular, Starmer, as the former head of public prosecutions, has the chance to change the public debate and challenge the tightly held view of imprisonment being the main response to offending.

Nearly half of the prisoners in England and Wales go on to commit another crime within one year of being released, and minorities are overrepresented among the accused in the UK. Failure to reform will lead to a long-term loss of trust in the criminal justice system.