'Progressive membership' Economic resilience shows potential for ties with EU

When the first Ukrainian-designed drone made in a German factory rolled off the production line last month, Volodymyr Zelenskyy knew it was a turning point for the economy.

- Phillip Inman

With drone-making joint ventures also well advanced in Finland and Denmark, war-torn Ukraine has shown how its businesses can adapt and break out of their bomb-threatened domestic confines, becoming more integrated into the EU’s industrial network with each passing day.

As the grim four-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is marked today, the Ukrainian economy continues to shows resilience under great strain. Last year, it was expected to grow by 2% to 3%, but Russia’s rockets and drones reduced the rate of expansion to 1%.

This year, economic growth is expected to improve, though the persistent Russian attacks will cut expansion from a previously expected 2.2% to 1.8%, forecasters at Ukraine’s central bank said last month.

In January Brussels took another collaborative step, making it easier for Ukrainian-registered trucks to drive across borders with minimal paperwork.

Deepening EU trade ties with Ukraine has taken years to negotiate, but there are concrete moves to integrate Kyiv into the bloc that could lead to accession talks later this year.

Kurt Volker, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis thinktank, says there is a political imperative to bring Ukraine into the EU as quickly as possible.

“But the practical side of this is Ukraine is not ready in terms of reform and implementation to be a fully fledged EU member in that space of time.

“So what I think [Brussels] will do is develop a concept, what you might call progressive membership,” says Volker.