Nuclear Stakes: Israel's Gamble on Force Could Drive Tehran to Build a Bomb

In just a few days of war, Israel has killed more than a dozen of Iran's top nuclear scientists, taken out much of its top military hierarchy and attacked parts of its nuclear programme.

- Emma Graham-Harrison

But despite the powerful display of military and intelligence dominance, Iran's widely dispersed and heavily protected nuclear facilities have not been critically damaged, Israeli military commanders and international experts agree.

And far from curbing nuclear proliferation, Israel's gamble on force could drive Iran to speed up its efforts to get a bomb if the current conflict ends without full destruction of the programme or a deal with iron-clad controls and inspection powers.

Israel's initial attacks have delayed by a few months Iran's ability to "break out", or make a functioning nuclear weapon, an Israeli military official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

But US intelligence officials believe Tehran was up to three years away from being able to deliver a weapon and not actively pursuing a bomb, CNN reported on Tuesday. That would make the delay relatively inconsequential.

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, claimed he ordered the attacks because Iran was on the threshold of having a nuclear bomb. But even if that is true, the strikes so far will not have bought much more time and Israel may not be able to do more lasting damage without US help.

What the attacks have achieved is to stir up fear among the Iranian leadership and anger among the population. The hatred many Iranians harbour for their own government did not blunt the horror of a missile strike that killed dozens of children in their homes while Israeli orders to evacuate entire neighbourhoods evoked the grim spectre of Gaza.