Self-serving China's divide-and-rule tactics risk shock waves across region

Ethnically, religiously, ideologically fractured Myanmar, formerly Burma, has never been a model of harmonious, integrated nationhood. Yet since the 2021 military coup and ensuing civil war, new and old divisions have grown rapidly. Western and neighbouring states supporting a democratic restoration now face a more fundamental, urgent challenge: how to prevent Myanmar's anarchic disintegration.

- Simon Tisdall

A break-up would send destabilising shock waves across the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh and all of south-east Asia. The humanitarian implications for its 54 million people are dire. A collapse would boost separatist forces and non-state actors elsewhere and severely dent China's claims to regional leadership. If President Xi Jinping cannot manage Myanmar, what price Beijing's superpower pretensions?

Reasons to fear an implosion proliferate. About two-thirds of the country is beyond the junta's control, led by Senior Gen Min Aung Hlaing. An offensive begun last October by northern ethnic armed groups has rocked a desperate, illegitimate regime whose writ is confined increasingly to the capital, Naypyidaw, and urban areas.