REVOLUTION, TRANSITION OR COLLAPSE IF THE REGIME FALLS, WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

At the G7 conference in Canada, differences within Europe about the wisdom of regime change in Iran could not have been more stark.

- By Patrick Wintour

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, warned against toppling a government “when you have no idea what comes next”. Insisting that he had no time for the Iranian government, Macron argued it was for the people of Iran to choose their rulers.

By contrast, Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, said: “We are dealing with a terrorist regime both internally and externally. It would be good if this regime came to an end.” He added: “Regime changes have not always led to the outcomes we desired, but we have positive examples. In Syria, the Assad regime was overthrown and since then there has been a new government trying to bring peace.”

He omitted to mention that the change of government in Damascus was preceded by nine years of bitter civil war - hardly a model of smooth transition.

As Tony Blair was warned by Iraq experts in 2002, the removal of a long-standing authoritarian government unleashes unpredictable forces.

In the case of Iran there has been no western planning for the aftermath of the regime’s possible collapse. Balkanisation is a real possibility. Iran is not an artificial state drawn up by foreign office planners, but the fear of separatism stalks the leadership of a country in which Persians make up only 50%. About a quarter are Azeri or Turkic people (including the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei), and there are Balochs, Kurds, Arabs, and smaller groups of Jews, Assyrians, and Armenians.