Old guard Why Africa's 'dinosaur' leaders keep on winning

A couple of kilometres from the crashing breakers of the Atlantic, in one of the most affluent parts of Lagos, visitors admire the paintings on the walls of the Nike Art Gallery, one of the biggest such private institutions in Africa.

- Jason Burke

Among the gallery’s visitors last week was Ehi, a businesswoman in her 40s who lives nearby and came with her three children. Hours before, officials had announced the results of Nigeria’s presidential election, held four days earlier. These had left Ehi bitterly disappointed. Her favoured candidate – Peter Obi, a 61-year-old businessman who had promised reform and radical change for Nigeria – had been soundly beaten by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a veteran “political godfather” who was the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress.

“[Obi] articulated what he wanted to do. He had a real programme. Tinubu had no answers. He just left me with more questions,” Ehi said.

Further across the city, in the gritty, overcrowded streets of Lagos Island, voters had turned out four days earlier to vote for Tinubu, and there was much satisfaction. “Now things will get better. Who knows anything about this Obi man? But we know [Tinubu] … He will look after us,” said Adeleke Adejoke Bilikis, a jobless 43-year-old.

The residents of Lagos are not alone in seeing the election in Africa’s most populous country and biggest economy as a potential inflection point. Nigeria faces economic turmoil, widespread violence and systemic corruption. The eight-year rule of outgoing president Muhammadu Buhari was characterised by drift and disappointment. Before the election, commentators spoke of a chance to “change the trajectory”. That opportunity seems to have been missed.