Casting vote It’s China that holds sway in these 'sham' elections

Myanmar’s military has regained momentum in its battle against a determined patchwork of opposition groups, retaking some territory, and pushing ahead with a widely condemned election that began last Sunday.

- By Guardian staff

A second phase of voting is scheduled for 11 January, followed by a final round on 25 January. It is a turnaround for the military, which had appeared so beleaguered that some dared to wonder if it could collapse.

Analysts point to China, and its shifting support, as one of the most important factors that has changed the dynamics in a five-year conflict that erupted after the 2021 coup.

"This is really all China playing a role in tilting things in favour of the military regime," said Jason Tower, senior expert at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, who is focused on Myanmar. Beijing has used border closures to put pressure on powerful ethnic armed groups in the north of the country to agree ceasefires, and even hand back territory to the military, as it has stepped up diplomatic support and continued weapon transfers.