Africans, not global powers, will forge the continent's stability

A "coup belt" now extends across the African continent, running along the Sahel region that bisects north and sub-Saharan Africa. Niger, where the democratically elected president was deposed by a military junta, has now become the last link that completed the corridor of countries run by coupsters.

- Nesrine Malik

It is the ninth coup or attempted power grab in west and central Africa since 2020. This might appear at first as a retrenchment, the thrusting of African countries back into military rule and weak democratic cultures, with a dash of Russian mischief to complete the picture of a fragile region at the whim of local strongmen and meddling. The reality is more complicated, and perhaps even oddly hopeful.

Much has been made of Russian intervention in the region, primarily through the activities of the Wagner group. Wagner, in terms of troop deployment, is indeed present in Africa, but only concentrated in a few countries: Central African Republic, Mali and Libya. The rest of Wagner's active military presence is fluid and inconsistent in loyalty. The organisation's main concern appears to be a sort of economic piracy, forging partnerships with local militias and governments to extract and skim off the yield of natural resources: gold in Sudan, oil in Libya, diamonds and uranium in Central African Republic.