A new migration wave is coming-and Europe is not ready for it

After a week when Russia threatened to annex more territory in Ukraine, gas shortages loomed, and inflation and Covid surged across Europe, it seems almost unkind to remind EU and UK leaders of another crisis that is unfolding, largely unremarked, right under their noses. As Claudius laments in Hamlet: "When sorrows come, they come not single spies, / But in battalions."

- Simon Tisdall

As if defeating Russian aggression was not enough of a challenge, Europe now also faces rapidly rising new "waves" of undocumented asylum seekers. Given the sociopolitical upheavals that ensued after 1 million refugees, mostly Syrians, arrived on Europe's shores in 2015, the EU and UK might be expected to be better prepared this time. Yet plainly they're not.

Figures published by Frontex, the EU border agency, show "irregular entries" rose to 114,720 in the first half of 2022, 84% up on last year. Many other migrants may have escaped detection. The number attempting entry via the western Balkans rose by nearly 200%. About 60,000 people are expected to cross the Channel in boats this year, double the 2021 total.

Strikingly, these figures do not include millions of Ukrainians who have sought EU asylum since February. Most non-Ukrainian refugees and economic migrants classed as irregular come from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Turkey, Belarus, Bangladesh, Egypt and sub-Saharan Africa. That's important for understanding what is driving the new surge. The west's abandonment of Afghanistan last year is clearly reflected in increased refugee numbers. Continuing strife in Syria, including Idlib; the threat of more Turkish cross-border military incursions into Kurdish areas; and various Middle East and African conflicts, plus the legacy of the Iraq war, continue to fuel instability.

The cumulative human impacts of the climate emergency also shape the overall migration picture.