A flawed strategy

Don't expect sanctions alone to end this war any time soon

- By Christopher S Chivvis

Last Wednesday, Donald Trump imposed new sanctions on Russia's giant oil and gas companies, and lifted restrictions on the use of certain long-range missiles by Ukraine, which will now be able to strike more freely into Russia itself. These moves came on the heels of Trump's conversations earlier in the month with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, after which the US president expressed his frustration at both sides' intransigence. Trump had hoped to end this war long ago. Will this be enough?

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US and its allies chose a strategy that aimed to use Washington's awesome political, economic and military power to impose such high costs on Russia that the Kremlin would sue for peace on Ukraine's terms. This “cost-imposition” strategy makes sense in theory. The problem is that, in practice, it has slowed Russia's progress but not persuaded Putin to end his aggression.

Despite multiple rounds of sanctions, more advanced weapons for Ukraine and Ukraine’s own development of more capable weapons such as drones, Russia is still far from capitulation. It now occupies more of Ukraine than it did three years ago. In February the war will enter its fifth year of fighting - just a few months shy of the length of the first world war.