Why the Dalai Lama's Reincarnation Matters Now

The recent reaffirmation by the Fourteenth Dalai Lama that the institution of his reincarnation will continue constitutes a significant development, not merely within the sphere of Tibetan religious practice but within the broader dynamics of international relations.

- KALYANI YEOLA

While the succession of religious leaders has often been considered peripheral to state-centric analyses, this event underscores the interweaving of spiritual authority and geopolitical contestation. It emerges precisely at a time when the international order is undergoing unprecedented transformations, marked by the resurgence of major power rivalries, the proliferation of revisionist ambitions, and the erosion of normative frameworks that once underpinned global stability.

The contemporary international system is defined by what many scholars have termed a "polycrisis" in which discrete challenges converge to produce systemic turbulence. The Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has fundamentally disrupted European security architecture and revitalized military alliances previously in decline.

Concurrently, the People's Republic of China has articulated its ambition to reshape international norms and institutions to reflect its own preferences and conceptions of order. These shifts have eroded confidence in the liberal international order, consolidated in the aftermath of the Second World War and strengthened during the so-called "unipolar moment" of the 1990s.

Instead, the emergent order is characterized by intensifying competition across military, economic, technological, and ideological domains.

Among the most salient features of this reconfiguration is the reassertion of nuclear deterrence as a central determinant of state behavior. Russia's repeated nuclear signaling, combined with North Korea's persistence in developing nuclear capabilities, has shattered the assumption that the nuclear taboo retains its constraining force.

The potential for proliferation in West Asia, particularly in relation to Iran's nuclear program, compounds the risk of regional instability with global repercussions.