Expectations for 2025 matric results

LITTLE CHANGE IN NATIONAL PASS RATE

- TASCHICA PILLAY

AS THE Class of 2025 awaits the eagerly anticipated release of their final matric exam results, set to be announced tomorrow, education experts are projecting little change in the overall national pass rate.

With over 900 000 candidates having sat for their National Senior Certificate (NSC) exams last year, including more than 195 000 from KwaZulu-Natal alone, insights from various educational professionals suggest that the pass rate is likely to hold steady at around 87%, consistent with the performances in 2023 and 2024.

Prof Mbulungeni Madiba, the dean of education at Stellenbosch University, said trends from recent years suggested that the overall national matric pass rate in 2025 was likely to remain stable at around 87%, in line with the relatively consistent performance recorded in 2023 and 2024.

“A significant decline is unlikely due to ongoing systemic support from the Department of Basic Education, although major improvements are also improbable given persistent structural challenges,” said Madiba.

He added that the mathematics pass rates were expected to remain similar to those of 2024, while a modest improvement in physical sciences was possible, despite continued teacher shortages that exacerbate disparities between provinces and districts.

"Although some provincial interventions were implemented, limited national-level initiatives may constrain their overall impact. Notably, the class of 2025 is the third cohort to complete grades 10 to 12 entirely post-Covid-19, allowing schools more time to implement learning recovery programmes, which may have a positive, though gradual, effect on learner performance,” said Madiba.

Ramashego Shila Mphahlele, associate professor in the Institute for Open Distance Learning at Unisa, said she expected a continued upward trend, but less dramatic than the jump from 2023 to 2024, because there was continued support for extra classes and holiday lessons.