Rising costs and declining numbers part of headache facing schools

CARMARTHENSHIRE has 1,600 fewer school pupils and 300 more teaching staff than it did five years ago and the “rationalisation” of the school footprint “needs to be expedited”, a senior council officer said.

- RICHARD YOULE

Aneirin Thomas, head of education and inclusion services, said modelling on the “possible rationalisation” of 10 schools found education costs could be cut significantly and up to £3m extra diverted into “receiving” schools.

Predominantly rural Carmarthenshire has a relatively large number of schools and many are in financial deficit. With birthrates declining pupil numbers are expected to diminish further and, because school funding is mainly based on the number of pupils on a school's roll, the financial implications are serious.

Addressing the council's governance and audit committee, although he was on leave that day, Mr Thomas said 44% of the county's schools were in deficit.

Referring to the potential of “school rationalisation”, he said: “I think that needs to be expedited because that's one way we can alleviate the pressure.”

The council later said the modelling work did not necessarily mean school closure, and that the exercise did not mean any specific schools had been identified.

A report before the committee said the budget outlook had improved in recent weeks but that schools were still forecast to overspend collectively by £11 million in 2025-26. Add that £11 million to existing deficits and the overall school deficit position is estimated to be just over £16 million at the end of 2025-26.

Mr Thomas said school funding pressures were well known before the Covid pandemic and that extra Welsh Government funding had masked the situation for a while.

He said 395 schools in Wales were in deficit out of a total of just under 1,500, with more than half in Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan and 45% in Cardiff in the red.