Risky Strategy

After months of sectarian violence, kidnappings, and cross-border clashes, the last thing Syria’s fledgling government needs is a neighbour stoking tensions.

- Barak Barfi

But that is what Israel is doing, as it erects military bases in the countries’ demilitarized “buffer zone,” strikes military sites, and kills security officials — all part of a well-worn strategy of backing minority groups against Sunni majorities in the Arab world. But by pursuing it in Syria, Israel is risking strategic blowback.

Along with neighbouring Lebanon, Syria has the most diverse population in the Middle East. While Sunni Arabs comprise 65 per cent of the population, their majority is far smaller than in, say, Egypt (around 90 per cent). The remaining 35 per cent of Syria’s population includes members of heretical Islamic offshoots, along with Sunni Kurds and Christians.

Managing this diversity has proved challenging for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which came to power after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster in December. Its cadres are drawn from al-Qaeda, which believes that Sunni Arabs should hold all the rights — and all the power - in the Islamic world. And while the HTS leadership has tempered its religious zeal, some of its foot soldiers have not.

In March, clashes between HTS and Assad’s Alawi sect, a heretical Shia offshoot accounting for around 12 per cent of Syria’s population, left more than 1,000 dead. The violence rattled Christians, who largely supported the toppled government. Meanwhile, groups loyal to Turkey have skirmished with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeast.