PUTIN’S TEST ON NATO

Russian President Viadimir Putin followed his red-carpet summit with Trump in Alaska by escalating attacks on Ukraine and provocations on NATO’s eastern flank

- Slawomir Sierakowski

For the first time in the history of NATO, a member state has been attacked by a rival.

The incident involved 19 Russian combat drones (there is no confirmation that they were equipped with warheads), some of which entered Poland from Belarus. The Kremlin must have been aware that casualties were a real possibility (one home was destroyed, but no one was injured).

If Russian tanks had rolled across the border and Russian fighter planes had flown over Poland, no one would doubt that this was an act of aggression. But because the incursion was made by drones, some are raising doubts, despite the fundamental role that drones play in warfare today.

Of course, today’s wars are not declared. Even aggression is not called war — Putin calls his war against Ukraine a “special military operation.” In the case of Russia, this verbal chicanery is nothing new; Russia has been operating in a definitional and legal gray area of its own creation since it first invaded Ukraine in 2014 with its insignia-less soldiers, dubbed “little green men.”

Against the backdrop of what constitutes an attack nowadays, the status of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which enshrines NATO members’ mutual defense pledge, seems unclear. The treaty does not specify what kind of attack is needed to trigger Article 5, nor even how NATO countries should respond. After all, between a protest note and a military mobilisation, there is a wide spectrum of actions that most countries, far removed from the war, may respond to very differently.

Was the drone incursion part of the biennial Russia-Belarus “Zapad” (West) military exercises, which begin on 12 September? Whatever the case, provocations have always been part of Russia’s repertoire, and similar military exercises preceded several of Russia’s recent invasions of neighbouring countries, including Ukraine in 2022.