GULF'S TOUGH CHOICES

The Islamic Republic appears to recognize that forcing the US to return to the negotiating table requires not only disrupting global energy markets, but also leveraging the damage it is doing to the Gulf’s reputation for safety and stability

- Don Aviv & Sam Worby

The United States and Israel have launched a war that the Gulf states invested heavily in diplomacy to prevent. Now they find their civilian infrastructure under daily attack.

If there is a silver lining to the war, it is that by retaliating so broadly, Iran has put to rest concerns about it stoking existing divisions among the Gulf states. In recent months, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia had landed on opposite sides of armed conflicts in Sudan and south Yemen. But now the Gulf is united in anger at Iran for its aggression, in frustration with the US for ignoring its warnings, and in confusion about what comes next.

Iran’s targeting of infrastructure and US bases across the Gulf reflects deliberate strategy. Commentators on Iranian state television have noted that Kuwait was a burgeoning global hub before 1991 but never fully recovered that status after the Gulf War. ‘The Islamic Republic thus appears to recognize that forcing the US to return to the negotiating table requires not only disrupting global energy markets, but also leveraging the damage it is doing to the Gulfs reputation for safety and stability.