Dragon Dominance

One of the more interesting things to look forward to in 2026 is the rivalry between the two great powers of our age.

- Aakar Patel

The United States has enjoyed a full century of global dominance from the end of the World War I (the US entry in the final stages of the trench-war standoff was thought to be decisive against imperial Germany) in 1918 to the present time. This period of dominance is ending if it is not over already.

In 2000, the United States ruled over global trade. Today it is China which is the largest partner for more than 150 nations. For many there is no option: New India is reluctant to engage with Beijing but is forced to import more from China than from any other nation. Winning the trade wars globally has given China the sort of leverage that perhaps even the US did not have at its peak a quarter century ago.

China takes in $3 billion in trade surplus per day, which is astonishing, and that is what its $ 1.1 trillion surplus for 2025 means. This will increase this year because of momentum. China exported 10 lakh cars in 2020 and five years later this became 70 lakh cars. And these cars are getting better and cheaper, meaning even more adoption globally.

In renewable energy, making the devices that produce solar and wind energy, China has no competitor. It has 85% global market share in the former and some 60% in the latter. Some 70% of the world’s electric vehicle batteries are made in China.