AI will be key to victory in Ukraine—and elsewhere

When Russia first launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the conflict drew comparisons to wars of the twentieth century.

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Tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery dominated the battlefield, and infantry on both sides were entrenched in trenches. This old-school style of warfare was evident in September 2022. Since then, a monumental transformation has been witnessed: the emergence of a new kind of warfare.

In the summer of 2023, the commander of Ukraine's ‘Third Assault Brigade’s Drone Unit—referred to here as Fil (not his real name)—explained that a new weapon was beginning to change the course of the conflict: first-person-view drones. These small, inexpensive, and highly maneuverable quadcopters transmit real-time footage to their operators and strike targets in kamikaze-style attacks. That year, Ukraine deployed thousands of these drones across the battlefield, and Russia quickly followed suit. Today, hundreds of thousands of such drones fill the skies over Ukraine.

What began as a war ‘with’ drones has evolved into a war ‘of’ drones. Two years ago, the strength of a Ukrainian brigade was primarily measured by its stockpile of Western-supplied tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery. Since 2023, however, drones have emerged as the most critical weapon on the battlefield. Due to their low cost, speed, and precision, drones have largely replaced traditional systems—including antitank missiles, mortars, tanks, and even artillery and aircraft. Today, a unit’s effectiveness and resilience are defined by the number of skilled drone operators it has and its capacity to deploy drones at scale.