Rural recovery, low base to fuel Q2 GDP

Policy transmission, festival season inventory too aid growth

- Manjul Paul

India’s economic growth likely stayed strong at 7.2% in the July-September quarter, albeit down from 7.8% in the previous one, led by continued improvements in rural activity and the statistical effect of a low base and low inflation, according to 15 economists in a Mint poll.

The economists projected India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the range of 7% to 7.7% in the September quarter. The official data is scheduled to be released on Friday.

The high projected growth number is likely due in part to a low base. GDP growth had slowed to 5.6% in the same period last year from 6.5% in the preceding quarter. The fact that retail inflation slowed to 1.7% in Q2 from 2.7% in QI, and wholesale inflation to 0.02% from 0.26%, will also boost the real GDP growth figure, which adjusts current prices for inflation.