'Farm output likely to grow by more than 3% in FY24'

Farm output is expected to grow by more than 3% in FY24 despite initial concerns about the adverse impact of an erratic monsoon, NITI Aayog member Ramesh Chand said, signalling the El Niño weather pattern may have had a more moderate effect than earlier anticipated.

- Gireesh Chandra Prasad & Puja Das

Chand, however, acknowledged that the uneven southwest monsoon would have some effect on crop yields, but said the overall impact would not be significant, helping cool vegetable and food prices. He said that his outlook for food inflation for the next two to three months is in the range of 5-6%, implying further softening of food prices.

A 3% increase in farm output would mean a moderation from the 3.5% growth in gross value added in the sector in FY23 and the 4% growth seen in the year before.

However, mitigating factors like increased area under irrigation will protect farm output growth, he said. Moisture due to some early winter rains in north India and bountiful rain in Kerala will also support farm output growth, he said. One positive of lower rainfall in the eastern region is that it reduces flood risk.