China Wanted to Negotiate With Trump. Now It's Arming for Another Trade War.

Communication between Washington and Beijing is at a standstill, raising the prospects of a long cycle of tariff retaliation

- Lingling Wei

Beijing spent the first months of President Trump's second term trying—and failing—to figure out the new administration's approach to China. Officials hoping to build lines of communication with Washington had no luck.

With Trump's latest tariff action, the magnitude of his trade assault hit home and Beijing's hope for dialogue melted into frustration and anger.

Until now, its response had been restrained. On Friday, Beijing matched Trump's 34% additional tariffs and for the first time it hit all U.S. products, no exceptions. It also restricted exports of certain rare-earth minerals, added U.S. companies to trade blacklists and aimed an antitrust probe at the China operations of U.S. chemicals and materials company DuPont.

Trump's response to its retaliation suggested things would only get worse. In a social-media post, Trump wrote, "CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED—THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!"

The lack of communication between the two sides shows no signs of letting up. What lies ahead is likely to be a cycle of tit-for-tat retaliation, making it hard to even start negotiations in the near term.

Beijing had been cautiously optimistic in the Trump administration's first days. Xi Jinping dispatched a top envoy to attend Trump's inauguration, a move that was seen as an opening for fruitful communication.

While Trump had threatened to hit China with tariffs when campaigning for president, he held off on Day One. His only mention of China in his inaugural speech, about wresting the Panama Canal from Chinese control, raised no alarms.

Trump had indicated that he was open to a deal with China, and Beijing hoped to explore one centered on what China was willing to offer, such as more Chinese purchases of American products and more Chinese investment in the U.S.

But in the following weeks, wherever senior Chinese officials tried to engage the new administration, they found only closed doors.