Short-to Medium-Term Equity Investing: Risks, Returns and Key Takeaways

Equity as an asset class is undeniably volatile and cyclical.

- Rushabh Desai

Long-term investments in equity typically help minimize these risks and harness the power of compounding. But what if you don't have the luxury of a long-term horizon or the patience to ride out market swings? Can equity still be a viable option for short- to medium-term investors?

To explore this, let's analyze the historical performance of the Nifty 500 TRI, which tracks the top 500 companies by market capitalization, over the past 20 years (from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2024). Specifically, we examined how frequently the index delivered returns of less than or equal to 0% (negative or zero returns) versus returns greater than or equal to 10% (fixed income/inflation-beating returns) across 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year rolling periods.

Short term (1-2 years): Over a one-year and two-year rolling period, the Nifty 500 TRI generated negative returns (less than or equal to 0%) only 13-18% of the time, while it delivered positive returns 82-87% of the time, highlighting its resilience over shorter durations. In fact, it generated returns greater than or equal to 10% (inflation-beating) in 60-65% of the time, reinforcing its potential to outperform traditional fixed-income investments.