'Rupee depreciation to remain gradual'

A weaker rupee may benefit Indian exports, but its impact is far less decisive than it once was.

- Srushti Vaidya

India’s export basket has become structurally less price-sensitive, driven by a growing share of engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, and services, where competitiveness hinges more on execution and supply-chain reliability than currency moves, said Neelesh Surana, chief investment officer (CIO) at Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India).

Surana also said foreign investor outflows from Indian equities reflect a confluence of factors—slower earnings growth, valuation normalization, rupee depreciation, limited exposure to the global artificial intelligence boom, and trade-related uncertainty. Many of these headwinds, he added, now appear largely priced into market valuations.

Indian exports to US grew 23% year-on-year in November after falling 9% in October. Is this a demand reversal or a one-off due to front-loading ahead of tariff or policy uncertainty? Do you expect further growth?

The November rebound reflects resilience, but it is likely influenced by base effects, a higher number of working days after the festive period, and some residual front-loading amid policy uncertainty.