State of jeopardy

India-Middle East Economic Corridor and India-Iran Chabahar port project are facing serious threats in the wake of ongoing tensions in West Asia

- SHANTANU MUKHARJI

Hamas' attack on Israel last year was a turning point in West Asia's geopolitical landscape. It led to a year of heightened conflict, involving the direct participation of Iran, the assassinations of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, and Iran's retaliatory missile strike on Israel on October 2. As events in the region continue to unfold, the implications of these occurrences—especially for countries in the Indian subcontinent—seem profound.

Earlier, the preceding year offered hope for regional stability, with the thaw in Iran-Saudi Arabia relations, Syria's return to the Arab League, and potential for Israel to normalize relations with Arab states. However, the October 7 attack and subsequent events of 2024 have sharply altered this landscape.

The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel—the deadliest since the Second Intifada—left over a thousand Israelis dead and saw more than 250 people taken hostage. In response, Israel launched a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza, resulting in over 41,000 Palestinian fatalities and the displacement of nearly 2.3 million Gazans. According to Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief Herzi Halevi, this military campaign aimed to dismantle Hamas' operational capabilities across the region.

In June this year, Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran in a precision strike believed to have been conducted by Israeli operatives, though Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement. The operation came in response to Hamas' increasing role in escalating violence. This assassination was followed by the death of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut in August. The IDF had long regarded Nasrallah as a key figure in Hezbollah's actions against Israel, including missile attacks from southern Lebanon.