IMF downgrades PH growth outlook

Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its economic growth forecasts for the Philippines through 2027, citing governance concerns and climate-related disruptions that have begun to weigh on the country’s recovery.

- BY DERCO ROSAL

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the Washington-based lender cut its 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) expansion projection to 5.1 percent from the previous estimate of 5.4 percent.

The revised figure falls below the government’s minimum growth target of 5.5 percent and reflects a somber assessment of the economy’s trajectory following a weak third-quarter performance.

The IMF also trimmed its 2026 forecast to 5.6 percent from 5.8 percent, and its 2027 outlook to 5.8 percent from 6.1 percent.

This sentiment is echoed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which holds a more bearish 4.6 percent growth assumption for the current year, citing a erosion of confidence linked to governance issues.

According to the IMF, the downward adjustment for 2026 and 2027 “reflects the carryover impact from a downward revision in the IMF’s growth forecast for 2025—from 5.4 to 5.1 percent—and a slower pace of capital accumulation.”