Election spending lifts PH Q2 GDP

Private-sector economists expect the Philippine economy to have expanded at a faster pace in the second quarter, compared to the first three months, driven by robust household consumption during the midterm election period, even amid external headwinds.

- BY DERCO ROSAL

The consensus growth forecast stands at 5.6 percent, based on the median of seven analysts' estimates. Relative to the previous quarter, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth might have accelerated faster, but year on year, this estimate is nearly one percentage point lower than the 6.5-percent growth in the same quarter last year.

HSBC Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economist Aris Dacanay projected the second-quarter expansion at 5.6 percent, citing a boost from consumption, particularly election-related spending, and goods exports.

"Seasonality was likely at play, with election spending from the May midterm elections lifting both household and government consumption," Dacanay said. But he asserted that a 5.6-percent growth is below the local economy's potential.

Measured against the downscaled growth target of the government of 5.5 percent to 6.5 percent, Dacanay's, as well as the consensus forecast, would only be a tad higher than the lower end of the goal.