ADB: PH growth resilient to US tariffs

While the Philippines is poised to sustain robust economic growth despite the threat posed by United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is urging the government to fast-track the implementation of big-ticket infrastructure projects to stimulate domestic public investment and consumption.

- By BEN ARNOLD DE VERA

The Manila-based multilateral lender, in its Asian Development Outlook report for April 2025, projected the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by a faster six percent this year, compared to last year’s below-expectations 5.7-percent economic expansion.

If the ADB’s forecast is achieved, this year’s growth will hit the lower end of the government’s more ambitious sixto eight-percent goal.

In Southeast Asia, Philippine growth this year is estimated to be only behind Vietnam’s 6.6 percent and Cambodia’s 6.1 percent.

However, the ADB’s latest growth forecast for the Philippines is a downgrade from its previous projection for 2025, which was 6.2 percent.

Teresa Mendoza, senior economist at the ADB’s Philippines country office, told a press briefing on Wednesday, April 9, that the “slight” outlook downgrade took into consideration the slower-than-anticipated household spending during the holiday season.

Mendoza said dampened consumption towards the end of 2024 reflected the lagged effects of previously high inflation and tight monetary policy.

Despite the lower forecast which was finalized before Trump announced the 17-percent reciprocal tariffs on Philippine imports last April 8, Mendoza said the country’s growth remains robust, with the momentum supported by improving fiscal metrics, proactive economic reforms, and sustained infrastructure rollout.

The ADB also expects inflation to further ease to an average of three percent this year from 3.5 percent last year, after hitting six percent in 2023—the highest annual rate of consumer price increases since the global financial crisis in 2008.