Africa 2026: polls sans choice, jobs

In addition, some of the continent's wars show little sign of resolution

- Alex Vines

Life president: NRM Presidential Candidate Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, together with the First Lady Maama Janet Museveni, arrive at Buziga Islamic School grounds, Makindye Division, to kick off election campaigns. Photo: National Resistance Movement

(Photo: National Resistance Movement)

Africa's political and economic outlook in 2026 is defined less by crisis than by contradiction. Fewer elections are scheduled than in 2025, yet democratic choice continues to narrow where voters do go to the polls.

Economic growth is set to accelerate in pockets, even as debt, unemployment and inequality tighten their grip. The continent's global relevance is rising just as internal fragmentation deepens.

Across the continent, 10 national polls are scheduled in 2026, including Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan Uganda and Zambia though in many cases voting is expected to legitimise incumbents rather than enable genuine political competition.

In Ethiopia, elections due in June are likely to entrench one-party dominance under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party, with insecurity in Amhara, Oromia and Tigray limiting participation and opposition boycotts narrowing voter choice.

Uganda's January election is expected to extend President Yoweri Museveni's rule amid continued restrictions on opposition activity, while Somalia's planned polls face uncertainty driven by electoral disputes, federal tensions and al-Shabaab attacks.

The common thread is a widening gap between electoral form and political substance, pushing political pressure beyond the ballot box.

If elections are one axis of instability, armed conflict is the other. Several of Africa'wars show little sign of resolution and, in some cases, risk converging into wider regional crises.