July likely to be drier, hotter than normal: IMD's grim forecast

July this year will be drier than usual, with rainfall across the country expected to be 94% of the long-period average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday, bucking hopes of any major relief after a bruising June that was the fifth-driest in 125 years.

- Jayashree Nandi and Pallavi Singhal

The agency also warned of above-normal temperatures for large swathes of the country, in what is expected to further stress crops during India’s peak sowing period. More than half of India’s Kharif-cultivated area is entirely rain-fed, and sowing has already been delayed in several states, according to government data.

‘Below-normal rainfall is likely across most parts of the country except some areas of northwest and northeast India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely,’ IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said in a statement. The agency did, however, predict rain across the country in the first seven to 10 days of the month.

Historically, July is India’s wettest month, accounting for 280.4mm of rain, or 32% of the overall monsoon rain of 870mm, according to IMD's 1971-2020 LPA, or long-period average. June usually receives 165.3mm of rain, or 19% of the monsoon LPA. However, India logged just 99.5mm of rain, 40% less than the LPA, making it the fifth-driest June since 1901 and the driest since 2014 (92.8mm). The driest June on record was 2009, with just 87.6mm of rain.