Exit polls suggest Sunday cliffhangers across 5 states

A cliffhanger in Chhattisgarh with an edge for the Congress. A fierce battle in Madhya Pradesh with two surveys predicting a landslide for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). A closer-than-expected clash in Rajasthan, which has voted out the incumbent every time in the last 25 years. A neck-and-neck contest in Telangana between the challenger Congress and the incumbent Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS). And a hung assembly in Mizoram with a regional outfit likely emerging as kingmaker.

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These were the broad takeaways from a clutch of exit polls released on Wednesday after the close of the five-state assembly elections that are widely seen as a virtual semi-final for the Lok Sabha polls scheduled to be held next summer. The results will be announced on Sunday.

The exit polls largely converged on the outcomes in Telangana and Chhattisgarh but varied wildly in the crucial heartland states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. In Mizoram, the polls predicted that the battle was largely between the ruling Mizo National Front and the Zoram People’s Movement, with the Congress likely a distant third.

The outcome of the polls in five states — the last major electoral exercise before 2024 — will have significant impact on both the political narratives in the run up to the Lok Sabha polls. It will also shape the dynamics with the 28-party Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which was forged just weeks before the polls were announced.

Three of the five states — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — also featured bipolar contests between the BJP and the Congress, presenting an opportunity to test the strengths of the two national parties that will go head to head in nearly a third of all Lok Sabha seats next year.

To be sure, exit polls are not always accurate and have often got the verdict wrong in earlier elections, especially in states with diverse populations, castes and communities. But they are useful in identifying trends.

In Madhya Pradesh, the largest state to go to the polls, a majority of exit polls predicted an intense battle between the ruling BJP and the Congress — two gave the edge to the Congress, one to the BJP and two forecast a dead heat. But two other prominent surveys — IndiaToday-AxisMyIndia and Today’s Chanakya-News 24 were the outliers, predicting a sweep for the BJP and a decimation for the Congress.