Trump and India-US ties: What will work, what needs work

Under Donald Trump, just like the past five American presidencies including his own, America's strategic relationship with India will deepen.

- Prashant Jha

WASHINGTON:

Shared anxiety about China remains the glue binding Delhi and Washington DC. Quad will strengthen, and India will maintain strong relationships across departments in the administration on day-to-day functional issues. The broader political and ideological climate aligns well with Indian political dispensation. In defence, intelligence and security matters, and during national security crises, trust will persist. The potential for tech cooperation remains deep and promising, and deeper convergence in West Asia will continue as Israel-Saudi Arabia normalisation progresses and doors open for the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor.

Yet, like previous presidencies, bilateral ties will face challenges stemming from the global climate, developments in the US, and specific bilateral issues.

Strategic uncertainty will increase, driven by Trump's sometimes chaotic management of US foreign policy. This uncertainty could manifest in various ways across different domains of the relationship. While there will be questions about Trump's broader strategic commitment to Indo-Pacific, paradoxically, greater strategic demands will be placed on India for burden-sharing. The scale and depth of bilateral defence and tech ties will hinge on India's ability to demonstrate its value to Washington and Delhi's utility for Washington. India-US economic ties will face pressures on both trade and investment fronts, requiring imagination, flexibility and political will to restructure. India must articulate why 'make in India' and 'made in America' are complementary rather than conflicting. Moreover, Trump's domestic decisions-on energy, climate, artificial intelligence, crypto, immigration, and European relations-will have secondary consequences, both positive and negative.

What will work: Politics, strategy, personnel

Three factors will work in India's favour.