Too late to stick to 1.5°C target now, says WMO

The world will inevitably overshoot the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C warming limit, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned leaders at the Belem Climate Summit on Thursday, as new data showed 2025 is ontrack to be the second or third warmest year on record.

- Jayashree Nandi

The stark assessment came as the US— the world’s largest historical greenhouse gas emitter— was notably absent from COP30 in Belem, Brazil, following the Trump administration's decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. China was represented by vice premier, Ding Xuexiang and India by its envoy Dinesh Bhatia.

The WMO'sState of the Global Climate Update revealed that the past Il years, from 2015 to 2025, will rank as the warmest Il-year period in the 176-year observational record, with the past three years claiming the top spots. Last year, 2024, became the first to breach the L5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels for an entire year.

While a permanent breach of the Paris limit refers to sustained warming over 20 to 30 years rather than individual years, the Berlin-based Climate Analytics institute warned that the world will “very likely” reach 15°C of long-term warming by the early 2030s.

Global temperatures from January to August 2025 averaged 1.42'C above pre-industrial levels, slightly lower than the 155°C recorded during the same period in 2024. This marginal cooling reflects the transition from El ‘Nino conditions that boosted temperatures in 2023-24 to neutral or La Nina conditions in 2025.