The fever news channels catch on counting day

‘Kya lagta hai, kaun aayega iss baar?’

- Abhishek Asthana

(What do you think, who will come to power this time?) A journalist who has freshly landed in an election-bound state asks her local driver. This question is the surest icebreaker in India during elections.The experienced driver is likely expecting this. He looks at his overhead rear-view mirror, searching for giveaways of political persuasions, if any, from the journalist’s appearance —to calibrate his response. He represents the voice of the people of the state. He is the ground report. He is the mandate and will be duly quoted at 8:30 am on the results day, when the trends of the first 15 postal ballots appear onscreen. Who cares? It is too hot outdoors to go around asking people.

Two days before the results, news channels release the exit poll numbers, partnering with one research firm or the other. Exit polls are like horoscopes, you believe them only when they predict good results for you. Two bored party spokespersons are sent for the show. The guy from the losing party dismisses the numbers as statistical quackery.

Statistical principles get murdered in news studios with every exit poll result. Pollsters want to play it safe, so they give absurd seat ranges: “The ruling party may get 30-60 seats out of 100.” Sure.